The traders not only got paid with higher interest rates, but also through capital appreciation. Carry trade crosses reversed violently when the financial crisis hit in September 2008 and AUD/JPY went from 105 to 55 EUR/JPY from 170 to 114, GBP/JPY from 251 to 118 (see “Carrying charges,”).
In addition to interest spreads that ballooned between Treasuries and junk bonds, nothing reflected extreme fear in the markets better than the carry trades collapse. Another very interesting group of currencies is commodity currencies: Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars, Brazilian real, South African rand and Russian ruble. These countries are major exporters of commodities and their currencies respond to strength or weakness of global economies accordingly.
The pound sterling has an interesting relationship with the dollar and euro and its own unique fundamentals. There are a couple of instances in the last six months when a bullish position in the pound vs. the dollar would have been a loser, but a major winner against the euro. While the fundamentals of the dollar and euro probably were the major drivers, if the only way you could play the pound was vs. the dollar, you had no chance to take advantage of the pound’s outperformance of the euro (see “Pounding the euro”).
There are a number of crosses that are quite popular with traders and do not involve the greenback. One of the most popular, very widely traded is Japanese yen vs. G-7 currencies.
In so-called carry trades, Japanese yen vs. higher yielding currencies (Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollar or the euro), traders are selling short yen and buying other currencies for a positive spread in interest rates. For example, in 2004, Japanese interest rates were close to zero and the Australian dollar was at 7.25%. Essentially, the trader was being paid handsomely by borrowing in Japan and depositing his funds in Australia
By trading a wide range of currency crosses, traders may be able not only to diversify within forex markets but also have an opportunity to establish positions that to some extent can offset each other. However, trading multiple crosses resulting in many open positions creates other problems if one is not versed in the markets and should only be done by experienced traders.
The currencies at their core are driven by interest rates, local economies and flow of funds in or out of that individual currency zone. There are a few basic differences between trading major crosses and crosses of other currencies also called exotic crosses. The liquidity in exotic currencies is certainly lower, which translates to wider spreads.
For example: while EUR/USD or USD/JPY may have spreads between bid and offer from choice (no spread) to one to two pips, traders should expect spreads in exotic currency crosses from three to 10 pips, depending on the time of the day, which is directly linked to liquidity and depends on the spreads the dealer offers. However, the major cross pairs like EUR/JPY are quite liquid.
That also means that the costs of the trade are much higher when one has to buy/sell with seven-pip spreads. Traders based in different time zones have to be cognizant of the liquidity in the markets and upcoming economic numbers in that currency zone and be prepared for significant volatility during that time.
Many banks and futures commission merchants (FCMs) made it possible for investors with a few thousand dollars to trade their accounts by offering electronic trading platforms with multiple currency crosses. The currency markets are not linear. Crosses of the U.S. dollar vs. major currencies are certainly an intricate, most liquid, very important component of the forex markets, but many other pairs offer great opportunities, if one understands their response, and their behavior in relation to different multiple events taking place continuously within the global financial markets. There has never been a time in recent financial history when equities, bonds, commodities and currencies have been so intertwined and accessible with the Internet, allowing the traders to react to markets with one click of a mouse.
Many traders exclusively trade U.S. dollar versus G-7 currencies, and by this not only give up many opportunities in other crosses, but limit their playing field.
The U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the world and as such, its fundamentals and technicals are paramount in any trade involving it. There are times when some news out of the Fed creates a market spike that takes you out of a trade.
In the last 20 years, the world that was divided politically between the ideologies of democracy and communism has become one, with a few small exceptions. The global financial players have responded to that transformation by sharing one stage and having access to equities, bonds and commodities the world over almost equally and instantaneously.
This brings us to a central place in today’s financial world: currency markets. The spot currency markets are not only central within the global financial system, but they also have become an asset class.
They offer great opportunities to traders and asset allocators alike with uninterrupted trading from 5 p.m. EST on Sunday in New York until the same time on the following Friday. The inter-bank currency markets, long a domain of large banks, hedge funds and professional speculators, in 2001 welcomed small investors.
One of the greatest ironies of trading is that as human beings we are naturally averse to “chasing tops or bottoms” when in reality they provide us with some of the highest probability entries in the game. My intra day scalping improved immeasurably ever since I took Larry Hite’s observation to heart and I can finally say that after 25 readings of Market Wizards I finally learned something.
How many times have we seen a currency pair trade opposite to the just released fundamental news often taking out the days’ highs or lows and continuing on its merry way? On those occasions something else is going on in the market that we may not necessarily understand but must respect. Often the true story surfaces several hours later, but by that time the bulk of the move is done.
As I scanned hundreds of intra-day charts over my vacation I realized that Larry’s observation was just as applicable on a short term basis as it was on a longer term time frame. Granted, the session breakouts that I looked at often had minuscule follow through, and you had to be very disciplined in both your entries and exits in order to take proper advantage of the price action, but the underlying idea remained valid. New highs and new lows ARE telling us something even if on occasion we do not want to hear it.
hadn’t read Wizards in more than five years, but over the Christmas vacation a vague recollection of quote from Larry Hite popped into my head and took my scalping to a whole new level. Larry Hite is one of the legendary traders profiled by Schwager who generated 30% annual returns for 13 years running before retiring in 1993. This is what he said, “When a market makes a historic high, it is telling you something. No matter how many people tell you why the market shouldn’t be that high, or why nothing has changed, the mere fact that the price is at a new high tells you something has changed.”
